Contenders and Pretenders | Which teams could make a surprise run come playoff time?

It’s easy to fall into the biased thinking that to have success in the FCS playoffs, you need to spend your regular season battling through either the Missouri Valley Football Conference or the Big Sky.

I mean, the last decade of results prove the theory mostly right. But something feels a bit different in the air this year.

And even if the eventual title contenders or even semifinalists come from the traditional powerhouse conferences, there is a real chance it’s not one of the teams we commonly think of.

So with that in mind, who are the teams that have shown through the first month and a half of the season that they are no longer pretenders, but serious contenders moving forward?

• Tarleton State (6-0, 1-0 UAC): The Texans are humming so far this season thanks to the outstanding play of quarterback Kaden Anderson and a deep running back room.

Tarleton already has an FBS win under its belt after knocking off Bowling Green 20-13 in the second week of the season, and added a marquee FCS win on Saturday when the Texans toppled No. 11 Austin Peay 40-32 on the road.

Anderson has thrown for over 1,600 yards and 15 touchdowns this season, while Tylan Hines leads the rushing attack with 596 yards and four scores. Hines missed nearly a month of action due to injury, but returned against Austin Peay in a limited role. In his three games before injury, Hines had games of 184, 250 and 141 yards.

Now up to No. 2 in the Top 25 rankings, Tarleton is in no way an underdog or even flying under the radar — but the Texans clearly have the best shot to leave Nashville in January as champions not from the MVFC or BSC.

• Lehigh (6-0, 4-0 Patriot): Welcome to the Luke Yoder show. The senior running back from Palm Harbor, Florida might be able to run for mayor of Bethlehem, Pennsylvania once his Mountain Hawks career is over due to his immense success on the field.

Yoder is nearing the 4,000-yard mark for his career, adding 814 yards and 12 touchdowns on 127 carries. Yoder is option A, B and C for the Lehigh offense, an offense that by comparison has passed for only 782 yards all year.

But as impressive as Yoder has been on the ground, Lehigh’s defense also deserves a ton of credit for their start, allowing 20 or less points in every game this season — including a shutout of Fordham last weekend.

I’m not putting Lehigh into the title conversation by any means, but there is no doubt that Yoder’s ground game and the defense will make the seventh-ranked Mountain Hawks a tough out come playoff time.

• Stephen F. Austin (6-0, 3-0 Southland) and Lamar (5-1, 3-0 Southland): These two Southland teams have been a blast to watch this season, and there are still fireworks to come.

Circle Saturday Nov. 7 on the calendar as that’s the day the unbeaten and eighth-ranked Lumberjacks will travel to Beaumont, Texas to take on the one-loss Cardinals, who are ranked 10th this week.

Quarterback Gavin Rutherford is nearing the 1,500-yard mark on the season with 16 touchdowns on the year for SFA, while the Lumberjacks defense is giving up just 15 points a game.

Speaking of defense, that has been the calling card on the year for Lamar, who is giving up less than 20 points a game in FCS play. Quarterback Aidan McCown has been solid for the Cardinals, throwing for nearly 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns so far this year.

Whoever comes out on top next month in what could be a top-10 showdown, should have a decent seed locked up and a solid path to the quarterfinals at minimum.

Lastly there are the MVFC and BSC teams that don’t have a historic pedigree that are also making moves this year. Keep an eye on Beau Brungard and No. 3 Youngstown State and Ty Pennington and No. 5 Northern Arizona.

Northern Iowa does it again: Echoing the theme of his column from last week, weird things happen in FCS domes. 

For the second time in three weeks, Northern Iowa took down a top-5 foe in the UNI-Dome, with this weekend’s victim being fourth-ranked North Dakota.

The UNI defense was spectacular in the 24-17 victory over the Fighting Hawks, picking off UND standout quarterback Jerry Kaminski, who left the game with a lower-leg injury, twice, while also returning a blocked punt for a score. 

UNI has had an up-and-down start to its season, but the last place any MVFC team wants to have a Saturday scheduled in right now is Cedar Falls.

Top 25 movement: A shakeup once again the top 5 this week after both Montana and North Dakota fell on the road, leaving South Dakota State, Tarleton State, Youngstown State, Montana State and Northern Arizona left to occupy the top slots.

Montana State is looking to bounce back from a stunning loss to Idaho two weeks ago, and will likely return quarterback Justin Lamson, running back Adam Jones and defensive back Caden Dowler this Saturday at Eastern Washington.

Montana falls from No. 2 to No. 6 after losing at NAU, while North Dakota tumbles from No. 4 to No. 14. With UND dropping, Lamar cracks the top 10 for the first time this season at No. 10, while Austin Peay slips to No. 11.

Finally, Mercer enters the poll at No. 21 after beating Western Carolina, Northern Iowa has earned a spot at No. 22 and Morgan State makes the rankings at No. 24.

Looking ahead: Two ranked matchups on the slate for Saturday, both coming from the MVFC.

Top-ranked SDSU travels to No. 14 North Dakota (1 p.m. CDT, ESPN+) and the Jackrabbits could have starting quarterback Chase Mason back in action after missing the past two and a half games. Mason’s possible return, mixed with UND likely playing without Kaminski should make SDSU fans happy about what was a top-5 showdown just last week.

Also in the conference, Northern Iowa will look to make it three in a row against a top-5 foe as the Panthers travel to No. 3 Youngstown State (6 p.m. EDT, ESPN+). Brungard has been spectacular this year for the Penguins (5-2, 3-1 MVFC), including throwing for 386 yards and three scores in a blowout of Illinois State last weekend.

Other games of interest on the slate include Idaho looking for another massive upset as the Vandals travel to Missoula and take on No. 6 Montana for the The Little Brown Stein (1 p.m. MDT, ESPN+), Rhode Island at Yale (Noon EDT, ESPN+) and Lamar at Southeastern Louisiana (6 p.m. CDT, ESPN+).