How to bet the FCS National Championship game.

As we approach the title game, both fan bases are excited and ready to claim their championship. Walking the streets of Nashville, you can feel the reserved optimism from Montana State fans and the underlying hope from Illinois State supporters. Both fan bases expect a battle, with each believing they have a legitimate shot to walk away as the winner.

Often when that type of sentiment exists among fans, sportsbooks do not set a line as high as we have seen for this game. The matchup opened at -8.5 in some shops in favor of Montana State, but that number was quickly bet up to -10 and has now crossed the key double-digit threshold, settling at -10.5 in nearly all markets nationwide. Books clearly believe Montana State money will continue to come in and are adjusting in real time.

Sportsbooks don’t often pay this much attention to FCS games, which may explain why the line shifted so quickly. That said, this game is serving as a replacement for Monday Night Football, and all eyes will be on Vanderbilt Stadium this week.

To say this will be the highest-volume FCS game of the year is obvious. As a result, books that are less prepared to accurately price these teams have begun scrambling and reacting to the market itself.

I sent a message to a sportsbook risk manager, who asked to remain anonymous, and he shared this sentiment: “The books are realizing quickly how much the public will blindly back this heavy favorite, and they undershot how much volume Montana State would bring in.”

Tim, a sports handicapper in Las Vegas, told me he “isn’t touching the game because the Cats are the better team, but it feels like every square bettor in town is backing them.”

Illinois State fans shouldn’t panic, though. The more people I spoke with around town, especially those who know FCS football inside and out, the more I heard leanings toward taking the points. Phrases like “coin flip” and “anyone’s game” came up repeatedly. Even some die-hard Montana State fans predicted scores that gave the Redbirds a real chance.

The total is what interests me most. As of Friday night, most books sat at 57.5, with some touching 58. Meanwhile, Circa Sports, the sharpest book in the world, had the total sitting at just 56. Derek Stevens and his crew rarely miss, so seeing a discrepancy of 1.5 to 2 points is eye-opening. Insiders expect points, and the public loves betting overs, but this line move screams under.

Another eyebrow-raiser is Illinois State’s team total of 21.5. That number drew puzzled looks from fans of both teams, with nearly everyone agreeing it feels low. I expect that number to rise as game time approaches, especially if the public continues pounding the over. Montana State’s team total of 35.5 also left bettors unsure of what to do.

For my money, this is a game where monitoring the lines until kickoff and shopping accordingly is crucial. There’s potential for a juicy middle if played correctly, and in a sharp market like this, that’s where smart bettors can gain an edge. Good luck, everyone, even though we all know luck isn’t the driving factor in sports betting.