Ivy League Football Preview - Playoff Edition

Harvard Crimson vs. Villanova Wildcats - Saturday 12:00 pm 

The Crimson lost last game and lost their chance at an undefeated season, but this team is still the real deal. Harvard earned an at-large bid after losing the Ivy League title to Yale in the last regular-season week. They still went 9-1 and Harvard captured its third straight conference title (20th overall) and was the first Ivy team to clinch the crown. There are some that would say that losing one game late could actually help them and we'll see this week. They match up well with Villanova despite not getting the higher seed. 

An interesting note is that while new to the current NCAA postseason setup, Harvard has actually been in the playoffs before. The last time the Crimson competed in the postseason was during the 1919 campaign when it defeated Oregon, 7-6, at the 1920 Rose Bowl.

Harvard still has the best player on the field in Jaden Craig, who was named a Walter Payton Award finalist, and their offense seems unstoppable at times. Even in the loss last week Craig still threw for three touchdown passes while also adding a 26 yard touchdown run. They were behind from the start and couldn't establish the running game, but Craig is enough to get over that most days. Craig ends the season as Harvard's all-time passing yards leader (5,967) and Craig also owns the all-time passing TD record. Craig enters Saturday with 51 career passing TDs. We know Craig will be fine here but he will need more rushing from Bascon and company to give this offense a well rounded feel. They were held to under 30 points just twice all season and never to under 24. Harvard's offense is a top-10 unit nationally, ranking seventh in total offense (461.2) and ninth in scoring offense (39.4). It also ranks in the top 15 in tackles for loss allowed (1st; 2.90), passing offense (5th; 291.5), sacks allowed (7th; 0.90), passing yards per completion (9th; 14.08), third-down conversion percentage (9th; 0.489), and fourth-down conversion percentage (13th).

The defense was having a historic season but they have not looked sharp over the past three games. The Crimson held 7 of their first 8 opponents to 14 points or less and while they held Columbia to just 14 their defense needed big turnovers to keep that score down. The Lions moved the ball all night but it wasn't looked at as a worry because they won so easily. Then the Penn game came and the worry was real as they allowed Liam O"Brien to score 43 on them and Yale put up 45 last week. This defense will have to be on point because Villanova can score.

The Wildcats have put up at least four touchdowns in each of their past nine games and the only times they weren't able to score at will were against Penn State on the road in week two and week one. Ja'briel Mace leads the ground game and powers this offense. Pat McQuaide can also dominate when it's needed like two weeks ago in an OT win against Stony Brook when he threw four touchdown passes including the overtime winner. As impressive as the offense has been, the defense has been almost as equally strong. They allowed 27 to Stony Brook when the Seawolves beat them through the air, but outside of that game this defense held six different teams to 17 points or less. 

Villanova holds the longest active FCS streak for home wins with 22 straight wins at home. That stat is countered by one of the best road teams in the Crimson, who before the loss at Yale had the nation's longest active road winning streak at seven. Harvard has also won four straight non-conference road games and has not suffered a non-league road defeat since at San Diego to begin the 2019 season. The Crimson also have been one of the best road teams in the FCS the last two-decades-plus. Since 1996, Harvard sits behind only North Dakota State in road winning percentage.

The Harvard defense has to be a concern but their offense looks unstoppable. Jaden Craig is the best player on the field and in a tough game they also boast the best special teams in the country. Despite not getting a first round bye the Crimson should advance. 

Yale Bulldogs vs. Youngstown State Penguins - Saturday 12:00 pm  

The Bulldogs have gotten to the first Ivy League playoff with a win last week against Harvard and now they have to be considered a legit threat in the field. The Bulldogs have had a great year defensively but it was their offense that impressed last week. 

The Bulldogs started the campaign 2-2 before winning their final six games of the season. Their defense has been excellent all year, holding 6 of their 10 opponents to 17 points or less and only Lehigh and Harvard scored more than 24 on them. Defense will have to be their cornerstone here as well. Yale's offense took off last week with Dante Reno looking really good going to the air, but their team play is based on running the ball and controlling the clock in a defensive minded game. Josh Pitsenberger has been that work horse back that few are in today's style of football. He carried the ball 38 times last week and that will be their formula for this game as well. Pitsenberger has been one of the best players in the country all season and if they can grind out a win that would be ideal for the Bulldogs. The offense has to have consistency here because they have been up and down all season. They scored 41 against Cornell and 47 against Stonehill but in between those two wins they scored just 13 and 16 against Dartmouth and Lehigh. They did the same thing this past month where their offense put up 34 against Brown and exploded for 45 last week against Harvard, but sandwiched in between was a 13 point effort against Princeton. 

The defense has been very good, but they will be tested once again here by dual threat Youngstown State quarterback Beau Brungard. He can beat you on the ground or through the air. Brungard is a finalist for the Walter Payton Award. Last week he added three more rushing touchdowns and two more passing touchdowns to his season total which is now at 48. He has 24 rushing touchdowns while throwing for 23 more. Simply put this offense is going to score. They put up 30+ points in all but two games this season. Once was on the road against Michigan State, which they still scored 24 against, the other was on the road against North Dakota. They have been especially sharp lately scoring 48 in back-to-back weeks before last week's 35. 

Their defense though is where Yale can gain an advantage. As good as the Penguins offense has been, their defense has been almost as bad. Youngstown has allowed 29 or more points in four straight games and 28 or more in 9 of their last 10 games. Youngstown is being picked to advance by all of the prognosticators and are favored by Vegas but Yale can steal the win here because of the Penguins lackluster defense. If Yale plays an offensive game like they did last week they can win this shootout and advance. The Yale coaching staff also won coaching staff of the year so I expect a closer game than most people think.