MVFC 2025 Season Preview: Best/Worst Case Scenarios, X-Factors & Must-Watch Games for Every Team

The wait is over. The Missouri Valley Football Conference, the gold standard of FCS football, is almost back, and 2025 has the makings of another classic season. From perennial powerhouses to dark-horse threats, here’s a team-by-team look at each squad’s ceiling, floor, X-factor player, game to circle, and overall outlook.

North Dakota State

Best case: 12-0 | Worst case: 10-2 X-Factor: WR Bryce Lance – Coming off a 1,071-yard, 17-TD breakout, he’ll be Cole Payton’s go-to weapon.

Game to watch: Oct. 25 @ SDSU – The Dakota Marker showdown could decide the Valley title (again).

Outlook: The Bison will be favored in nearly every game. Trips to UND and Illinois State could be tricky but expect another run at a perfect regular season.

South Dakota State

Best case: 11-1 | Worst case: 9-3 X-Factor: QB Chase Mason – Finally gets the starting job and brings a true dual-threat skillset.

Game to watch: Sept. 6 @ Montana State – A top-five non-conference clash early in the year.

Outlook: Big turnover in personnel, but the Jacks still have elite talent. Road trips to USD and Bozeman will test them.

South Dakota

Best case: 11-1 | Worst case: 8-4 X-Factor: LB Nate Ewell – Ready to carry on USD’s tradition of all-conference linebackers.

Game to watch: Aug. 30 @ Iowa State – No warm-up game; the Coyotes get a Big 12 contender right away.

Outlook: Higher ceiling than SDSU, but also a lower floor. If the newcomers click, USD can be in the Valley and national title mix.

Illinois State

Best case: 10-2 | Worst case: 8-4 X-Factor: RB Wenkers Wright – First Redbird 1,000-yard rusher since James Robinson.

Game to watch: Oct. 4 vs. NDSU – A prime upset candidate on the Valley schedule.

Outlook: Underrated contender with returning all-conference talent. Home games vs. NDSU, SIU, and YSU could swing the race.

Youngstown State

Best case: 8-4 | Worst case: 5-7 X-Factor: QB Beau Brungard – 3,000+ total yards last season and one of the Valley’s most dangerous athletes.

Game to watch: Oct. 4 vs. SDSU – Stambaugh is a tough place to play, and this could be a statement win shot.

Outlook: Avoids USD, but has tough road tests at NDSU, UND, and ISU. Defense needs to improve for a playoff push.

Southern Illinois

Best case: 9-3 | Worst case: 5-7 X-Factor: QB DJ Williams – Healthy again and brimming with confidence.

Game to watch: Nov. 15 vs. USD – Could be a title-deciding matchup.

Outlook: A dark-horse contender that avoids SDSU completely. Staying healthy is key.

North Dakota

Best case: 8-4 | Worst case: 4-8 X-Factor: LB Malachi McNeal – The leader of UND’s defense with all-conference potential.

Game to watch: Nov. 8 vs. NDSU – Rivalry chaos always possible at the Alerus Center.

Outlook: Year one under Eric Schmidt will be a grind, but hosting both NDSU and SDSU could spark surprises.

Northern Iowa

Best case: 6-6 | Worst case: 3-9 X-Factor: TE Derek Anderson – Full-time at tight end and a big red-zone target.

Game to watch: Oct. 18 vs. USD – Coyotes rarely win in Cedar Falls.

Outlook: Rebuild year under new HC Todd Stepsis. Tough schedule early but expect some flashes.

Indiana State

Best case: 5-7 | Worst case: 2-10 X-Factor: DB Kimal Clark – All-American transfer with a hard-hitting reputation.

Game to watch: Nov. 8 vs. Illinois State – Could play spoiler late in the year.

Outlook: Has offensive pieces to work with, but defense has big question marks.

Murray State

Best case: 3-9 | Worst case: 1-11 X-Factor: RB Jawaun Northington – Veteran back looking to finish strong.

Game to watch: Oct. 18 vs. SDSU – First-ever home game against the Jacks.

Outlook: Still building under Jody Wright. 2025 is about progress, not titles.

Projected MVFC Standings:

1. NDSU

2. USD

3. SDSU

4. Illinois State

5. Southern Illinois

6. Youngstown State

7. North Dakota

8. UNI

9. Indiana State

10. Murray State