Valley Rundown: After lopsided playoff openers, which Dakota team is primed to pull a 2nd-round upset?

The FCS playoffs are in full swing, and unsurprisingly, the MVFC quickly backed up its claim as the best conference in the country. 

The Valley went 4-1 in the opening round, with Youngstown State proving to be the lone team to not advance after choking away a 28-point third-quarter lead to Yale. Meanwhile, Illinois State handled business, along with the three other Dakota schools that played last week. 

USD, SDSU and UND all won by multiple scores, but now each faces difficult road tests against some of the best teams in the country. The question is, who’s got the best chance to pull the upset and punch a ticket to the quarterfinals? 

UND @ No. 4 Tarleton State 

Well, for anybody who said the Fighting Hawks deserved to be left out of the postseason, last week proved they deserved their place. 

Against one of the few teams in the nation that didn’t lose to an FCS foe in 13th-seeded Tennessee Tech, UND didn’t disappoint in a dominant 31-6 win. Although the F’n Hawks didn’t pull away until the fourth quarter, the defense was suffocating for the entire game, forcing six turnovers and holding the Golden Eagles to only six points. They had not scored fewer than 10 points in a game during the regular season and hadn’t scored fewer than 20 points against FCS competition. 

Now, UND travels to face No. 4 Tarleton State, with a catch. Fighting Hawk quarterback Jerry Kaminiski went down in the third quarter and didn’t return. It was announced later that Kaminiski was in concussion protocol and his status for Saturday is uncertain. If he can’t go, it’ll be Simon Romfo under center. He started 12 games in 2024, throwing 18 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.

Whether Kaminiski is healthy or not will play a major role in this game. However, if he’s healthy and with the wave of momentum UND is riding, an upset could very well be in the cards. However, it’ll more than likely be a tight game, a situation where UND has not been good all season.  

Upset confidence level W/Kaminiski: 5/10 

W/O: 3/10 

No. 14 SDSU @ No. 3 Montana 

It’s like 2024 all over again, except the seeds are switched. 

The Jacks looked as close to their early-season form last week then they had in over a month and a half, bludgeoning New Hampshire 41-3. Chase Mason finally made his return after missing the last five games of the regular season, and he didn’t miss a step as he threw for 230 yards and three touchdowns with an interception. SDSU’s defense also looked much better, only allowing 192 total yards of offense. 

So now the Jacks head back to Montana for the second time this season. If you forgot, SDSU won one of the most exciting games of the year against Montana State in Bozeman earlier this season, and now the Jacks will go for the clean Montana sweep against the Griz. 

This is the second straight postseason the two have met in the second round. The roles were reversed last year, with No. 14 Montana coming to Brookings to face No. 3 SDSU, which ended in a lopsided 35-18 win for the Jacks. 

To me, this game will come down to whether SDSU is back to its old self before Mason’s injury and the four-game losing streak. If the Jacks play like they did the last time they were in Montana, expect another thriller and a possible head-turning victory. If they don’t, Montana will get revenge for last season and cruise into the quarterfinals. 

Upset confidence level: 4/10 

No. 11 USD @ No. 6 Mercer 

Like UND, USD didn’t pull away in its first-round matchup until the second half. The Coyotes only led by seven points at half, but scored 21 straight in the second to pull away and defeat Drake 38-17. 

Aidan Bouman was efficient all day, throwing 261 yards and four touchdowns on a 75% completion percentage. Bouman has also quietly been one of the best QBs in the country during the Coyotes’ four-game winning streak, highlighted by an 11-1 touchdown/interception ratio during that span. 

I think of the three Dakota schools, USD is in the best position to pull an upset. Mercer doesn’t have the marquee victories against top-ranked opponents that some other higher seeds have. Arguably, their biggest test of the season was at the beginning against UC Davis, but you’ll remember that game ended in a no-contest because of the weather. Before the stoppage, UC Davis led 23-17. 

Even so, the Bears have won eight straight games against FCS opponents and quarterback Braden Atkinson was just named the 2025 Jerry Rice Award Recipient as the top freshman in the country. He threw for 3,448 yards, 34 touchdowns, and seven interceptions in only 10 games and will be priority No. 1 for USD’s defense. 

Upset confidence level: 6/10