Valley Rundown: Judging the biggest overreactions as conference play heats up

One of my favorite articles to read every week is from ESPN’s Dan Graziano, where he judges NFL overreactions every week of the season. While I may not usually agree with Graziano’s determinations on certain topics, the premise of the article has always intrigued me.

So, I thought I’d go ahead and give it a crack this week, judge some topics from around the Valley and discuss whether they are overreactions or the real deal. 

Cole Payton’s 2025 has been more impressive than Cam Miller’s 2024 to this point

Verdict: OVERREACTION

Now here’s an interesting one. 

After writing about Payton in my piece last week, I wondered how his season compared to Cam Miller’s just a year ago. Now, at this point in 2024, Miller was firmly in the Walter Payton Award conversation. With Payton now turning heads, I wanted to compare each of their seasons through five games. 

Here’s just a quick rundown of important stats between the two and who had the better mark after five matchups: 

• Passing yards: Payton (1,173) > Miller (1,143) 

• Passing TDs: Tied at 9 each 

• Passing yards per completion: Payton (13.5) > Miller (12.7)  

• Completion percentage: Miller (78.2%) > Payton (74.7%) 

• Yards per completion: Payton (18) > Miller (12.7) 

• Rushing yards: Payton (356) > Miller (190) 

• Rushing TDs: Miller (5) > Payton (3) 

Well, it’s certainly a lot closer than I would have thought. So, why am I saying it’s an overreaction? That’s because I wouldn’t say Payton’s season has been more impressive when, in reality, I think both campaigns have been pretty comparable so far. Really, the only notable discrepancy I see is in rushing yards, but we all remember how impactful Miller was with his legs. 

Plus, stats don’t tell the full tale and there is a whole lot of season left. Miller’s 2024 legacy was cemented with a championship and Payton still has a long way to go before we really get down to the nitty-gritty of comparing both campaigns.  

USD will boast the rushing champ for the second straight season

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION 

Who would’ve thought this just about a month ago? After last season’s conference rushing leader, Charles Pierre Jr., went down with a season-ending knee injury, USD’s backfield took a significant hit.    

And yet, here we are in October and the Coyote backfield hasn’t seen almost any drop-off thanks to LJ Phillips Jr. With 799 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns, Phillips has been one of the biggest surprises on a USD side that is still struggling to find its footing. Those 799 yards are not only the most in the conference, but in the entire country. Those 10 TDs are also tied for second most in the FCS. 

Currently, he has a 143-yard advantage over the second-leading rusher, Youngstown State’s Beau Brungard (656), and a 249-yard advantage over SDSU’s Julius Loughridge (550) for the conference lead. 

However, for as big an accomplishment as leading the conference in rushing would be for Phillips, how much would it matter if the Coyotes were to miss the playoffs? The answer: it really wouldn’t. 

Southern Illinois will only lose one game the rest of the season 

Verdict: OVERREACTION 

I simply have not talked about SIU enough, so here’s my chance. Through the early season, I firmly believe the Salukis are the third-best team in the conference, behind NDSU and SDSU. DJ Williams has been as advertised since getting healthy, the defense has shown flashes and they dominated Indiana State in the conference-opener.   

So, what makes me think they can’t go the rest of the way and only drop one contest? Well, it’s simply the schedule that lies ahead. I’d probably chalk down this week’s fixture at NDSU as a loss, which wouldn’t be surprising whatsoever. 

But, even though the Salukis avoid SDSU this year, they still have UND and USD at home. Their road schedule is even more intimidating, with trips to Youngstown State and Illinois State looming in the final three weeks of the season. I don’t believe SIU will lose any more than three more games the rest of the way, but it’s difficult to see only a single conference loss going forward.