Valley Rundown: Which teams are in the playoffs, and who’s still on the bubble with one game to go

It felt like the season just started yesterday, but here we are in the final week of the regular season in the FCS. 

There are still so many unknowns when it comes to who will get those final, precious postseason spots and where Valley teams will be placed when the bracket is released on Sunday. 

For now, let’s take one last look at the teams in playoff contention, see who’s sitting pretty this week and who still has some work to do.   

IN 

NDSU

NDSU has been in for a few weeks now, thanks to the auto-qualifier awarded to the conference champion. The Bison will also certainly earn the No. 1 overall seed after going 8-0 in Valley play and will likely end the regular season 12-0 with a win against Pioneer League side St. Thomas on Saturday.  

USD

The Coyotes’ turnaround story has been one of the best in the FCS this season. 

USD was only 5-4 just a little under a month ago, was very much on the outside looking in when it came to the playoffs and completely flipped the script. The Coyotes fired off three straight victories, all against ranked opponents and ended their season with a gritty 5OT defeat against a desperate SIU side. 

USD can also kick its feet up this week, finally reaching the bye week, at the end of the season no less. The Coyotes now look as if they could be hosting a playoff game with a top-16 seed, but regardless, they are definitely in. 

Illinois State 

Kind of like last year, the Redbirds have somewhat flown under the radar this season, but are once again well-positioned heading into the postseason. 

Illinois State sits at 8-3, including a 5-2 mark in Valley play with notable wins over both South Dakota teams, both of which were on the road. The Redbirds can also improve their case for a higher seed with a victory in their season finale against SIU. Even with a loss, it’s tough to see a scenario where Illinois State isn’t dancing. 

ON THE BUBBLE: 

Youngstown State 

Yes, the Penguins are still on the bubble, but they are in a comfortable position. 

At 7-4, Youngstown State has been one of the best teams in the conference lately, picking up victories over Illinois State and SIU while only being one of two teams to play undefeated NDSU within one score (in Fargo, no less). However, there is still one more game to win at Northern Iowa. 

On paper, this should be easy for the Penguins, but there is history playing a factor in this one. Not only will it be senior day for the Panthers, but Youngstown State has not won in Cedar Falls since 1999. 

As long as Youngstown State wins, there’s certainly a place in the postseason and possibly a seed ahead. Lose, and suddenly things get complicated, especially depending on what happens in Grand Forks. 

SDSU/UND

I’m grouping these two because their matchup will have serious consequences not only for the two sides playing but also for other teams hoping to grab a playoff spot. 

UND is 7-4 at the moment, with a 5-2 record in conference play. The Fighting Hawks' postseason case is solid, highlighted by wins over Youngstown State and SIU. But there have been so many close losses to good teams that are weighing the resume down a bit. However, a win is likely to guarantee a seed. 

As for SDSU, we’ve talked about it for weeks. The wheels have fallen off, and the Jacks went from 7-0 to 7-4 seemingly in the blink of an eye. Chase Mason’s absence has lingered throughout the four-game losing streak and the defense has dropped off significantly (as I talked about last week). 

There is no question that SDSU has no chance of making the playoffs without a win this week. But if that happens, suddenly the conversation gets muddy. 

Do you leave UND out at that rate with the head-to-head advantage? Are SDSU’s losses too much to overcome even with a victory? There is also a possibility where Youngstown State loses, then SDSU and UND both get in while the Penguins are left out. This is also just accounting for Valley results, not even looking at what other games could impact the committee’s decision-making. 

Things could, and likely will, get crazy this week. So buckle up, the best FCS conference in the country could have even more unpredictability, and it will likely be must-watch TV.