Valley Rundown: YSU, USD postseason chances grow as SDSU’s real problem emerges amidst losing streak

The MVFC’s unpredictability continues to impress. 

Just a few weeks ago, Youngstown State and USD’s playoff chances were sinking by the second. Now, the Penguins and Coyotes are steaming toward postseason berths. SDSU’s three-game losing streak has thrown doubts into its playoff chances and other teams are fighting to position themselves for at-large bids with just two weeks left. 

Let’s take a look at all the teams in contention and look at whether fanbases should be optimistic or a bit more pessimistic about their postseason chances. 

Youngstown State 

Remaining Games: vs. Indiana State, @ UNI 

Optimism Meter: Optimistic 

The Penguins are riding Beau Brungard’s All-American caliber season directly toward the playoffs. Only a few weeks after seeing Youngstown State as a long shot to make the playoffs, I now say that the Penguins are heading directly toward the postseason, thanks to winning three of their last four. 

With a 6-4 mark, Youngstown State just needs to handle business against Indiana State at home and then against UNI on the road. If the Penguins win both, expect them to be a dark horse in the playoffs to make a deep run. 

South Dakota 

Remaining Games: @SIU 

Optimism Meter: Cautiously optimistic 

USD could be the hottest team in the conference, not named NDSU. I also declared the Coyotes all but dead in the water at the same time I said the same about YSU. Now, USD is only one victory away from almost guaranteeing a spot in the big dance. Winners of five of their last six, the Coyotes now own wins over ranked teams in consecutive weeks against UND and SDSU.  

However, the 7-4 Coyotes still need to take care of business this week at SIU. Win, and the Coyotes are likely in. Lose, and USD would need a cascade of favorable results against other postseason contenders. 

South Dakota State 

Remaining Games: vs. Illinois State, @ UND 

Optimism Meter: Concern is boiling over 

Whew, it might be panic time in Brookings. 

Even when Chase Mason comes back and the offense gets closer to full strength, how many points are they going to have to score to compensate for the defense? The defensive drop-off has been staggering during this three-game losing streak.  

Here are just a few team defensive stats. Figures listed first are the first seven games and the following figure is during the losing streak.  

• PPG allowed: 14.5, 28.6 

• YPG allowed: 289.1, 353.6

• Rushing YPG allowed: 105.8, 157.3 

• Passing YPG allowed: 183.3, 196.3

• Turnover margin: +13, -3     

Wow. Just those numbers tell quite a compelling story. The Jacks' defense has fallen off a cliff, and yes, there are injuries on that side of the ball as well. That turnover margin, especially, is important because SDSU relied on takeaways when the win column was growing. Now, the Jacks have only forced one turnover over their past three games. 

Those remaining games are going to be a challenge as well. However, if the Jacks can win at least one and be competitive in a loss, it could be enough. But a lot of nails will be bitten off in Brookings over the next two weeks.  

Illinois State 

Remaining Games: @ SDSU, vs. SIU 

Optimism Meter: Optimistic 

Sitting at 7-3, the Redbirds pretty much just need to win one of their two remaining games to guarantee a playoff spot. If they were to win both of those, suddenly there’s a real argument for not only a top-16 seed, but perhaps one of the coveted first-round byes could be in play if things play out correctly. 

That being said, lose both of those games and the waters get a bit murky. 

North Dakota 

Remaining Games: @ Murray State, vs. SDSU 

Optimism Meter: Take care of business   

The what-ifs just continue to pile up for the Fighting Hawks. UND lost yet another one-score game, this time to NDSU. The Fighting Hawks just can’t find ways to win these one-score games and now all four of their losses have come in those affairs. All of their six wins have been more than one score. 

Still, UND just needs to take care of business over the next two weeks. Murray State should be a blowout victory and then it’s back for senior day against the Jacks. That now looks like a very winnable game and would seemingly cement a top-16 seed. 

Southern Illinois 

https://x.com/SIU_Football/status/1987572193228689819?s=20

Remaining Games: vs. USD, @ Illinois State

Optimism Meter: Must-win mode 

The Salukis need to embody Al Davis over the next two weeks. 

Just win, baby. 

Yes, SIU has stumbled multiple times during the conference season, and last week was a low point. Going up 24-7 early, allowing 34 second-half points and losing by 10 to Youngstown State is less than ideal. It would have been a much-needed resume-boosting road victory, but it instead goes down as a back-breaking defeat.  

But, with a 6-4 mark, the Salukis aren’t quite dead…yet. The good news is that the final two games on the schedule would really help their resume. The bad news is that they’re facing a red-hot USD side and then traveling up to Normal for Illinois State’s senior day. Splitting those won’t be enough to make the playoffs.