What to make of the mess at the top of the FCS with just three weeks to go

We knew this past weekend was set up for some fireworks, and once again the FCS overlords delivered.

Youngstown State and standout quarterback Beau Brungard stormed back to stun North Dakota, while South Dakota State took a 28-0 lead into the fourth quarter against in-state rival South Dakota before holding on for a 31-21 victory over the Coyotes.

The two top-10 matchups in the MVFC, along with other key showdowns like Montana State roughing up Cal Poly, Northern Arizona sneaking by one-win Utah Tech and Tarleton State needing a score in the final minutes to beat sub-.500 Eastern Kentucky set up an interesting question for the final three weeks of the season.

As the FCS playoff committee really starts to fine tune their rankings and build a bracket, which contender has separated itself from the crop, and who is setting themselves up for disappointment when the bracket drops on Nov. 22.

Battle for the top seed: Barring any upsets, which is key for every one of these teams in the final stretch — the battle for the top seed likely will come down to which old dog has the best resume between Montana State and South Dakota State.

Both the Bobcats and Jackrabbits, now ranked Nos. 1 and 2 respectively in our latest poll, have key players back from injury and playing at a high level. 

For MSU (8-1, 5-1 Big Sky), quarterback Justin Lamson, running back Adam Jones and defensive back Caden Dowler are all back on the field. The trio missed the Idaho game, MSU’s lone loss of the season, but in the three games since, the Bobcats have found their form on offense scoring 56, 38 and 61 points. All-American wide receiver Taco Dowler could be done for the season according to MSU coach Brent Viegen, but freshman Carter Dahkle has been a revelation in Dowler’s absence.

In Brookings, South Dakota, coach Dan Jackson also has the Jackrabbits rolling again after their 21-10 loss to North Dakota on Oct. 17. That was quarterback Chase Mason’s return from injury after missing nearly a month, and in the two games since the loss Mason has completed 65% of his passes for three scores and no interceptions. Josiah Johnson has also been a key contributor on the ground for SDSU (7-2, 4-1 MVFC), rushing for 126 yards and a score against USD last weekend.

Both MSU and SDSU also have key wins on their resume, with the Bobcats topping ranked foes Northern Arizona and Weber State, along with an FBS win at Nevada. Meanwhile SDSU has three ranked FCS wins against Youngstown State, Illinois State and South Dakota.

Unbeaten with question marks: I don’t want this to seem like I’m taking anything away from the season Tarleton State is having — but the questions are both who they’ve played and at times how they’ve played.

Yes, the Texans (9-0, 4-0 UAC) have an FBS win over Bowling Green — who is 2-7 on the season — and eighth-ranked Austin Peay, but every other win has been over a team with a losing record on the season, including a less-than-convincing 28-24 win at home over Eastern Kentucky last weekend.

I think the third-ranked Texans are an incredibly talented team, led by the quarterback play of Kaden Anderson and running back Tylan Hines — who is returning to form after missing a month due to injury. But the committee might need to see more to put Tarleton into the top-two discussion — and if they miss out, that means a ticket to Nashville would have to go through the flyover states.

Speaking of unbeaten teams that need a little help, Stephen F. Austin has done everything asked of them this season — but it still might not be enough to get a top-four seed. With Youngstown State and Northern Arizona sitting ahead of the sixth-ranked Lumberjacks (9-0, 6-0 Southland), the path to hosting a quarterfinal would require SFA to hold serve in the final weeks, but also see a slip-up from either the Penguins or the NAU version of the Lumberjacks.

SFA has a moderate strength of schedule with its best win to date being ranked victories over Abilene Christian and Incarnate Word, but the Lumberjacks have also run through a Southland Conference that has only three of the 10 teams sitting above .500.

This upcoming week will be big for both Tarleton and SFA as both teams face some of their toughest FCS foes to date. The Texans host No. 23 ACU (Saturday at 6 p.m., ESPN+), while the Lumberjacks travel to No. 12 Lamar (Saturday at 3 p.m., ESPN+). Wins in those games would go a long way in bolstering the chances of the Texas squads leaving Selection Sunday happy.

Need a little help: Youngstown State and Northern Arizona have both been impressive this season, raking up several ranked wins each. But it’s one key loss for each that will make it hard to nail down a top-two seed. 

NAU (7-2, 5-1)  has good wins on the board against Idaho State, Montana and Incarnate Word, but a 28-14 loss at Montana State will always be key when comparing the two against each other. Same goes for YSU (7-2, 5-1), which has beaten South Dakota and North Dakota, but a loss to SDSU along with only playing 11 games instead of 12 will be a tough sell to the committee.

Putting my fortune teller hat on, I think it would be hard not to see MSU and SDSU as the top two seeds — in that order, with Tarleton and likely Youngstown at the No. 3 and 4 spots respectively. That would leave NAU and SFA hitting the road for quarterfinal tilts — but the way this season has gone, three weeks is plenty of time for a little more chaos.

Looking ahead: Another banger of a weekend is ahead on the FCS slate as five ranked matchups dot the schedule on Saturday.

Starting off with a massive showdown in the Southern Conference as No. 18 Mercer travels to No. 20 Chattanooga (1 p.m. EST, ESPN+). Mercer are winners of five straight, including a 34-17 victory over Abilene Christian to start the streak. Chattanooga meanwhile has won three in a row after dropping a 14-3 contest to East Tennessee State. A Mercer win would likely set up a title showdown against Tennessee Tech in two weeks.

In the MVFC, No. 17 Illinois State will head to No. 10 North Dakota (1 p.m. CST, ESPN+) with playoff positioning and hopes on the line for the Fighting Hawks and Redbirds respectively. Also in the conference, SDSU travels to upset kings Northern Iowa (1 p.m. CST, ESPN+) in a game that could shake up the entire playoff bracket.

Other ranked games of note to watch include: No. 6 Stephen F. Austin at No. 12 Lamar, No. 23 ACU at No. 3 Tarleton State and No. 1 Montana State at No. No. 24 Idaho State (4 p.m. MST, ESPN+).