The Valley's Playoff Math: Who's In, Who's Out & Who's Living on the Edge?
The Missouri Valley Football Conference (MVFC) playoff race is heating up as the regular season enters its final stretch. Youngstown State and South Dakota State picked up massive victories in Week 9, while North Dakota and Illinois State face increasingly important games as they fight to strengthen their postseason résumés.
With the latest FCS playoff committee rankings released, we're breaking down Week 9's biggest results, previewing the Week 10 slate and examining each team's potential path to the postseason.
Week 9 Review
No. 4 Youngstown State (7-2, 5-1) 31, No. 10 North Dakota (6-4, 3-3) 28
This was a huge game that lived up to the billing.
North Dakota jumped out to an early 21-7 halftime lead, but Youngstown State came roaring back. A Jerry Kaminski interception, something that has become an all-too-familiar issue, helped open the door for the Penguins' comeback.
Ultimately, the Youngstown State defense stepped up, forcing stops on North Dakota's final four drives. Both offenses moved the ball effectively, averaging more than five yards per play, but Youngstown State was just a tick better when it mattered most. That was on full display during the Penguins' final offensive possession.
After converting a fourth-and-goal from the 9-yard line with just over two minutes remaining, a holding penalty pushed Youngstown State back to fourth-and-goal from the 19. Head coach Doug Phillips rolled the dice again, and with Beau Brungard under center, why wouldn't you?
Brungard found his favorite target, Lynn Wyche-El, wide open in the back of the end zone for the go-ahead touchdown.
Barring anything crazy, that performance should just about wrap up back-to-back Walter Payton Awards for Brungard. The standout quarterback finished with 332 all-purpose yards and three passing touchdowns.
No. 17 Illinois State (7-2, 3-2) 35, Murray State (1-8, 0-5) 14
Illinois State has been slogging along lately, and this game was no different.
The Redbirds couldn't pull away from an inferior opponent until late in the fourth quarter. Illinois State moved the ball reasonably well, and Beckham Pellant, who has taken over for Gage Roy as the starting quarterback, had a decent afternoon.
Pellant finished 13-of-27 passing for 248 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. As a team, the Redbirds rushed for 228 yards.
Still, those numbers didn't translate into much separation until the fourth quarter. No offense to Murray State, but Illinois State should be generating more consistent scoring opportunities against this caliber of competition.
Northern Iowa (4-4, 3-2) 45, Indiana State (2-7, 0-5)
A really good showing by the Panthers, who are hanging on to their playoff hopes by a thread. This game was something of a microcosm of both teams' seasons.
Northern Iowa delivered a solid offensive performance, led by a rushing attack that produced 240 yards at 6.2 yards per carry.
Defensively, however, the Panthers surrendered more than 450 yards of total offense. Without three forced turnovers, Indiana State likely would have put considerably more points on the board.
For the Sycamores, it was more of the same: poor defense and costly mistakes preventing offensive efficiency from translating into points.
No. 2 South Dakota State (7-2, 4-1) 31, No. 7 South Dakota (7-3, 4-2) 21
A statement victory for the Jackrabbits that puts them in the driver's seat for the MVFC automatic qualifier and a potential top-four playoff seed.
South Dakota State dominated the opening three quarters, building a commanding 28-0 lead before surviving a furious South Dakota comeback that saw the Coyotes score 21 fourth-quarter points.
The story of this game was in the trenches.
South Dakota State rushed for 236 gross yards and 227 net yards. South Dakota, meanwhile, managed just 75 gross rushing yards and 19 net yards.
The Jackrabbits recorded 10 tackles for loss and five sacks. The Coyotes managed just one tackle for loss and one sack.
South Dakota also recorded only three defensive stops that weren't aided by a South Dakota State 15-yard penalty or fumble. The Coyotes showed tremendous heart with their 21-point fourth-quarter surge, but ultimately, the Jackrabbits were the more physical and better overall team on Saturday.
Week 10 Preview
No. 4 Youngstown State (7-2, 5-1) at Murray State (1-8, 0-5)
Saturday | 2 p.m. ET | ESPN+
Youngstown State enters looking to continue its hot streak, but Murray State has hung with some good teams at home this season. I've also heard that the game could be close to, if not completely, sold out. The Penguins are heavy favorites, and their rushing offense, ranked second in the conference, will face the MVFC's worst rushing defense.
That matchup alone likely tells us how this game will unfold.
No. 2 South Dakota State (7-2, 4-1) at Northern Iowa (4-4, 3-2)
Saturday | 1 p.m. CT | ESPN+
South Dakota State is coming off its huge victory over South Dakota, while Northern Iowa enters following a bounce-back performance against Indiana State.
The Panthers have been two completely different teams depending on where they've played this season.
Northern Iowa is 4-0 at home and 0-4 on the road.
A major factor in this matchup will be UNI's willingness to throw the football and its struggles stopping the run.
The Panthers have also relied heavily on forcing turnovers throughout the season. If South Dakota State runs the football as effectively as it has been and protects the ball, it will be difficult for Northern Iowa to keep pace.
That said, the Panthers are absolutely capable of making this an ugly, physical game and pulling off the upset if the Jackrabbits aren't prepared.
No. 17 Illinois State (7-2, 3-2) at No. 10 North Dakota (6-4, 3-3)
Saturday | 1 p.m. CT | MidcoSN / ESPN+
This is a massive matchup between two teams desperate to strengthen their playoff résumés down the stretch.
Both probably need at least one more victory to remain in the at-large conversation, while two additional wins would put them in a much more comfortable position.
For North Dakota, the story since its huge upset of No. 2 South Dakota State has been close, but no cigar.
The Fighting Hawks have come up just short against No. 4 Youngstown State and No. 7 South Dakota.
Illinois State, meanwhile, enters on a three-game winning streak after dropping consecutive contests to Northern Iowa and South Dakota State earlier in the season.
However, those three victories have come against the bottom three teams in the MVFC standings, and the Redbirds have struggled to pull away until late in each matchup. These are two of the better defenses in the MVFC, if not the country.
Both offenses have also been productive, with North Dakota averaging 34.4 points per game and Illinois State averaging 35.11.
Looking at advanced metrics like Series Conversion Rate (SCR), both teams grade out well. Illinois State ranks fourth nationally in net SCR, sixth offensively and eighth defensively. North Dakota ranks 11th, 16th and 30th, respectively.
However, I'd give North Dakota the edge based on the eye test and its ability to generate explosive offensive plays.
The Fighting Hawks have faced considerably tougher competition and played well despite coming up short. Illinois State, on the other hand, has looked average at times against significantly weaker opponents. With playoff positioning hanging in the balance, this could be one of the most consequential MVFC games of the weekend.
Southern Illinois (4-5, 2-3) at Indiana State (2-7, 0-5)
Saturday | 6 p.m. ET | ESPN+
Southern Illinois heads to Terre Haute looking to keep its slim playoff hopes alive, while Indiana State searches for its first MVFC victory of the season. The Salukis have continued to look average across the board, while the Sycamores have shown flashes of promise but simply can't get out of their own way. I think Southern Illinois ultimately pulls this one out behind DJ Williams and a decent defensive effort. However, don't be surprised if this game remains close deep into the fourth quarter.
MVFC Playoff Picture: Projected Final Records, Probabilities & Seeding
Kevin has been asking me for a while to incorporate some of the numbers and projections I traditionally put together over at Jackrabbit Illustrated.
With the latest FCS playoff rankings now available, this seemed like the perfect opportunity. Below is a breakdown of each MVFC team's probability of finishing with a particular record, along with where I believe that record would position them in the FCS playoff picture.
[Percentages represent projected probabilities of finishing with each record. Playoff seeds and at-large outcomes are projections, not official committee determinations.]
South Dakota State (SDSU)
Final Record | Probability | Playoff Projection |
10-2 | 66.3% | No. 1-4 seed |
9-3 | 29.6% | No. 4-9 seed |
8-4 | 4.1% | No. 9-16 seed |
7-5 | Less than 0.1% | At-large bid |
Youngstown State (YSU)
Final Record | Probability | Playoff Projection |
9-2 | 57.8% | No. 3-6 seed |
8-3 | 41.4% | No. 10-16 seed |
7-4 | 0.8% | At-large bid |
South Dakota (USD)
Final Record | Probability | Playoff Projection |
9-3 | 32.3% | No. 5-9 seed |
8-4 | 55.8% | No. 12-16 seed |
7-5 | 11.9% | At-large bid |
North Dakota (UND)
Final Record | Probability | Playoff Projection |
8-4 | 42.6% | No. 9-16 seed |
7-5 | 47.9% | At-large bid |
6-6 | 9.5% | Out |
Illinois State
Final Record | Probability | Playoff Projection |
10-2 | 10.7% | No. 3-6 seed |
9-3 | 36.5% | No. 7-14 seed |
8-4 | 39.4% | At-large bid |
7-5 | 13.4% | Out |
Northern Iowa (UNI)
Final Record | Probability | Playoff Projection |
7-4 | 3.1% | No. 10 seed to at-large bid |
6-5 | 27.5% | At-large bid to out |
5-6 | 61.8% | Out |
4-7 | 7.6% | Out |
Southern Illinois (SIU)
Final Record | Probability | Playoff Projection |
7-5 | 2.3% | At-large bid |
6-6 | 21.3% | Out |
5-7 | 53.6% | Out |
4-8 | 22.8% | Out |
Indiana State
Final Record | Probability | Playoff Projection |
5-7 | 0.6% | Out |
4-8 | 28.4% | Out |
3-9 | 58.2% | Out |
2-10 | 12.8% | Out |
Murray State
Final Record | Probability | Playoff Projection |
4-8 | Less than 0.1% | Out |
3-9 | 3.7% | Out |
2-10 | 29.4% | Out |
1-11 | 66.9% | Out |
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