Valley Rundown: Illinois State, USD remain as final MVFC playoff teams following statement victories

Illinois State and South Dakota are the final MVFC teams alive in the postseason. It’s just like everybody predicted. 

Not NDSU, SDSU, UND or Youngstown State. Instead, the Redbirds and the Coyotes are the conference’s last chance to make a run at a national championship. Both squads are riding incredibly high after USD had the most lopsided victory of the week, while Illinois State pulled one of the biggest upsets in playoff history. 

So, who’s got the best chance to advance? Let’s take a look. 

Redbirds soaring into quarterfinals  

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It’s hard to put this upset on a scale because there isn’t really that much to compare it to, at least recently. Just for reference, since starting a streak of 16 consecutive playoff appearances beginning in 2010, NDSU was never eliminated any earlier than the quarterfinals. 

That was up until last week. 

Despite going up against NDSU’s 19 home winning streak, turning the ball over five times and trailing 14 points as late as the fourth quarter, among the many factors that played against the Redbirds’ favor, they managed to pull the most historic FCS postseason upset in recent memory. 

But there were a few things that definitely stand out when you take a deeper look. The thing that popped out to me immediately was the difference in time of possession. Illinois State obviously came in with the idea of keeping the ball out of Cole Payton’s hands, and it worked. The Redbirds had the ball for a staggering 42 minutes (70% of the game) compared to the Bison’s 18-minute TOP.  

They made it difficult for Payton and the Bison offense to get rolling. And the Redbirds did a magnificent job containing Payton as he threw for a season-low 101 yards. Perhaps more importantly, Illinois State rendered him completely ineffective on the ground as he rushed for a negative net yardage at -14, which includes 21 lost yards on four Redbird sacks. 

So, now the question is, how far can Illinois State go? Well, don’t forget, if it weren’t for a bad home loss against SIU at the end of the season, the Redbirds would have been seeded and possibly competed for a top-eight seed had that last game gone differently. And after taking down a previously undefeated NDSU side, Illinois State proved it can beat anybody. 

But it’ll be UC Davis up first. The Aggies made fairly easy work of Rhode Island last week, winning 47-26. For Illinois State to advance, the defense will need to show up like it did last week against UC Davis quarterback Caden Pinnick, who, in his first year for the Aggies, is top-15 in the country in passing yards (2,804) and sixth in passing TDs (29). 

Tommy Rittenhouse, while effective against NDSU with almost 250 passing yards and three touchdowns, has got to be better with the football. Throwing five interceptions can’t happen again, even if the Redbirds did enough to make up for it. The Aggies' run defense is also average, allowing 181 rush yards per game, so don’t be surprised to see a heavy dose of Victor Dawson after 137 rushing yards against the Bison. 

If the Redbirds get past UC Davis, it’d be either Tarleton State or Villanova. If I were Illinois State, that title game certainly looks within reach.   

USD's red-hot run continues with thrashing of Mercer

The Coyotes just continue to pick up steam at the right time. 

After making relatively easy work of Drake last week, USD trotted on down to Macon, Georgia and snatched Mercer’s chain in its own house. Domination may not be an appropriate adjective for what the Coyotes did last Saturday in their 47-0 victory. 

While Aidan Bouman, LJ Philips Jr. and the offense did what they needed to do, the Coyote defense continues to elevate its play. USD made Mercer freshman QB Braden Atkinson look very much like a freshman, picking him off four times and holding the Bears’ offense to only 277 yards of offense.

And now, the Coyotes will head back to the state of Montana for the second-straight year for a postseason clash. However, this time it’ll be farther west against the Griz in Missoula instead of Bozeman. 

Montana enters the quarterfinals after sending a message as well, defeating an SDSU team that was looking much closer to its early-season form, 50-29. For USD, attention turns toward the absolutely lethal offensive tandem of Keali'i Ah Yat and Eli Gillman if a semifinal trip is in the cards. 

Ah Yat and Gillman have terrorized defenses all year, and that was no different against SDSU. Ah Yat, an All-Big Sky first-team honoree, threw for 360 yards and four touchdowns. Meanwhile, Gillman, the All-Big Sky offensive player of the year, went for 132 and two TDs on the ground. That’s just a microcosm of what the duo has done all year. 

Don’t be surprised if the Coyotes lean heavily on Bouman this week, too. Even though Montana has forced the second-most interceptions in the nation (20), the Griz also allowed 3,427 yards through the air, last in the Big Sky. USD will always look to run first, but it may be up to Bouman to win this one.